Atlanta Falcons vs. Minnesota Vikings Sunday Night Football Betting Picks & Predictions

We have the same situation here as we did on Thursday with the Green Bay Packers. I don’t have as much conviction in the Minnesota Vikings, so I’m attacking this game differently.

Once again, Vegas just doesn’t allow you to move a game from a -3.5 spread to a -2.5 spread for reasonable odds. I’m also not willing to pay -170 on a Minnesota win. I feel drastically more comfortable with their offense in this situation than their defense, which is why we’re backing their total points.

The Vikings have consistently been one of the best offenses in the NFL since Kevin O’Connell took over as head coach. They’ve ranked in the top 10 in points per play in each of O’Connell’s seasons, excluding 2023.

It seems as though 2023 was the outlier season, as 2022 and 2024 look very similar. The Vikings were drastically better at home in both of those years, and that’s generally true for most NFL teams.

We’re expecting some growing pains early in the season for Minnesota’s offense as J.J. McCarthy takes over. We saw that in Week 1, as he played as poorly as possible for three quarters before closing the game by scoring 21 points in the fourth to secure a win.

One key here is that McCarthy should be settled in. He finally looked comfortable in the fourth quarter of his debut, and now he gets his first home start in Minnesota. That should give him a more favorable atmosphere and help avoid the shaky start we saw in Week 1.

We’re essentially looking at three touchdowns and one field goal here, with a few other outs. Minnesota currently has wider odds on over 2.5 touchdowns scored, but this is a cheaper way to attack that market.

The key for the Vikings is how good kicker Will Reichard has been. He didn’t miss an extra point last season and hit 80% of his field goals. Most of his misses came from 50+ yards, but he still converted 8 of 11 attempts from that range. Reichard even nailed a 59-yarder in Week 1. While that might not seem critical, it gives us another out without Minnesota needing to completely dominate.

Ultimately, this feels like a spot where McCarthy can continue to settle in and find success. The Atlanta Falcons don’t have an elite defense, and they’re a team that’s willing to push the pace. If that’s the case, there will be plenty of scoring opportunities for Minnesota.

Where to Bet: Minnesota Vikings over 23.5 points | -120 at DraftKings Sportsbook

2025 NFL Season Betting Record: 2-3